Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 2.246471 2.383939 2.529252 2.694952 2.879474 3.079592 3.314324
2025-06-22 2.019164 2.203423 2.407703 2.653170 2.943139 3.278722 3.702494
2025-06-29 1.867169 2.074221 2.310980 2.605656 2.968368 3.408426 3.996343
2025-07-06 1.745202 1.964297 2.220648 2.548360 2.964913 3.489909 4.225246
2025-07-13 1.690633 1.927429 2.210853 2.583081 3.072189 3.714091 4.661274
2025-07-20 1.648559 1.901049 2.209489 2.624717 3.187591 3.955758 5.150143
2025-07-27 1.614323 1.881004 2.212934 2.670227 3.308834 4.214451 5.699747
2025-08-03 1.559497 1.831208 2.174174 2.655041 3.342226 4.346893 6.068619
2025-08-10 1.509047 1.784091 2.135614 2.636325 3.367088 4.466285 6.431330
2025-08-17 1.458610 1.734432 2.090699 2.605101 3.369741 4.549315 6.741128
2025-08-24 1.412318 1.688109 2.047755 2.573494 3.368327 4.623900 7.045551
2025-08-31 1.382440 1.662155 2.030917 2.577725 3.420919 4.791004 7.557056
2025-09-07 1.360673 1.646786 2.028634 2.604093 3.511937 5.036954 8.292597
2025-09-14 1.318605 1.602357 1.983935 2.564838 3.494602 5.090326 8.626211
2025-09-21 1.277520 1.557826 1.937232 2.519903 3.464321 5.116283 8.902658
2025-09-28 1.236021 1.511417 1.886131 2.465680 3.414728 5.100998 9.077741
2025-10-05 1.223797 1.504975 1.891674 2.498544 3.513838 5.378781 10.060273
2025-10-12 1.214195 1.501680 1.901337 2.537932 3.626802 5.698570 11.272427
2025-10-19 1.206066 1.500033 1.913106 2.580959 3.749401 6.055997 12.753846
2025-10-26 1.182505 1.475662 1.890246 2.566605 3.766382 6.189914 13.586665
2025-11-02 1.159244 1.451043 1.866124 2.548909 3.775664 6.307822 14.419908
2025-11-09 1.133971 1.422858 1.835720 2.519378 3.760488 6.368162 15.072662
2025-11-16 1.109743 1.395587 1.805871 2.489471 3.742587 6.420216 15.724237